Primary season
Posted on January 9, 2008
I’m an independent, so the primaries don’t matter too much to me. However, they’re interesting because one of those people is likely to become the next President. So while the parties decide who they want to put forward as a candidate, it’s interesting to follow as an outside observer.
This year, a whole bunch of states moved their primaries up with the idea that it makes their state more important in the process. I think this is and isn’t true. On February 5th (a/k/a Super-Duper Tuesday), twenty-four states will hold their primaries. That many states holding their primaries on the same day is pretty unprecedented. In 2004, seven states held primaries on the same day in March (a/k/a Super Tuesday), but that was the largest primary date until this year. This has changed the traditional calculus of primary season. Rudy Guliani decided to more-or-less ignore Iowa and New Hampshire and concentrate on winning primaries in states with more delegates and are only a few weeks away. Since the primary candidates know they can’t win every state, they will focus on the states with more delegates (Alaska and North Dakota probably won’t see a lot of campaign stops), and states where they are likely to win (e.g. Utah is pretty much a gimme for Romney, Arizona will probably go for McCain, etc.) Candidates will pick and choose the states to campaign in. Instead of making their state primaries more important, they may have diluted their value to campaigns.
Some people might think it will be all over on February 6th, that both parties will have a clear candidate, and the rest of the primaries will be superfluous. However, I think they’re probably wrong. Both the Democrats and Republicans have strong candidates who are capable of getting votes and money. On February 6th (or later that week) the field will probably narrow to 3 – 4 for each party, with no clear winners. Subsequent weeks in February will bring a bunch more primaries, but if the candidates keep winning or making strong showings, then they will keep bringing in money to keep the campaigns going. This makes the states with later primaries more important. Texas and Ohio both have lots of delegates, and their primaries are in March. Pennsylvania is another delegate rich state, but has a primary in April. If there are no clear winners early on, the importance of later states rises, which means they will see more campaign stops. Indiana holds its primaries in May, but I expect by then there will either be a clear candidate for each party or it will be down to 2 or 3 for each party. It’ll be very interesting if that happens.
Also, the best place to go if you want to follow the elections is www.electoral-vote.com. Since we are in primary season, it’s being updated daily. Check it out.
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