Eye towards the election
Posted on January 10, 2004
I have been watching the Democratic Presidential hopefuls with some interest over the past few months. I’m a registered independent, but I’ve had enough of George the 43rd. I’m not some sort of “knee-jerk liberal.” In fact, I had no problem with his father, George the 41st. I just think the economy is doing piss-poor (watch for outsourcing/offshoring to become an election issue), Iraq is/was a bad idea since we lacked UN support and found no WMD’s, and we still haven’t found Osama bin Laden. It should also be noted, George/41 did well enough with the first Gulf War, but that wasn’t enough to get him re-elected.
I read somewhere that it used to be that the most likely person to be elected President was someone who had worked in Washington as a US senator or representative, or better yet, a Vice President. The idea being they had experience and presumably lots of contacts. Since the 1970′s however, that has mostly changed. Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and the current George Bush were all Governors and ran to some extent on the idea of being an outsider. Obviously, Washington DC is so messed up, it will take an outsider to set things straight. IMHO, that doesn’t work because Washington is still Washington, despite the presumed efforts of Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush. The bureaucracy is just so massive, I don’t think it can be changed in any appreciable way, but I digress. It’s not so important that they are outsiders who will actually change Washington, but it is very important that they make voters believe they will. If voters are dissatisfied, then the government will change (the administration, at least). So Democrats will play up the dissatisfaction with the government in order to get elected.
Let’s take a look at the Democratic contenders:
- Wesley Clark
- Howard Dean
- John Edwards
- Richard Gephardt
- John Kerry
- Dennis Kuchnich
- Joseph Lieberman
- Carol Moseley Braun
- Al Sharpton
Take a look here for more info about the candidates. I’m using it for the stuff below.
I guess I should actually describe what I am looking for in a potential President. Some of them may be naive, overly idealistic, or even irrational, but I’m fairly flexible on them. The candidate should have spent some time in the military, preferably enlisted, for a grunt’s-eye view. It would also be nice if the candidate came from outside Washington. Following that, it would be nice if the candidate wasn’t a lawyer or a professional politician. Experience in politics is one thing, being a life-long politician is another. Those are the more important ideas. Following them, I would say that the candiate should be (more or less) pro-environment, pro-labor, pro-technology, pro-civil-rights, pro-small-business, anti-internet-tax, anti-media-consolidation, and anti-copyright-extension. The candidate should also be for a reduction in H1B visas and hopefully against offshoring. Though I don’t expect them to be big campaign issues, kudos if the candidate uses Linux or Open-source and is for rolling back the length of copyright.
With these ideas in mind, let’s start with Wesley Clark. He is a former US Army General, so that gives him points for being an outsider, and not a polititian. He also gets points for having been in the military, though it was as an offiecr, and not a grunt. On the issues, he seems generally pro-environment, as he is for strengthening the Clean-Air act. He seems to have a few good ideas for job creation as well, although his platform didn’t seem to address offshoring. He seems to think the idea of Congress paying for the things it wants is a good idea (see here for the definition of an “unfunded mandate”).
Howard Dean is a former Governor of Vermont and a former physician. He gets points for being a doctor and not being involved in Washington. It looks like he has been involved in Vermont politics from 1982 – 2002, so I knock him down a few points for being a semi-pro politician (He kept his doctor’s practice until he became Governor in 1991, IIRC). He gets points for being pro-environment (He looks at environmental issues as being related to health issues), pro-labor (endorsed by the ALF-CIO and AFSCME, IIRC). Being a doctor, he is certainly big on health care. He is also pro-civil rights, as he signed a law for civil unions in Vermont.
John Edwards is a US Senator from North Carolina and a former lawyer. Oops. Marks down for both, though he gets a few back, since he is only in his first term (though that doen’t say much for his experience). He gets points for even having Corporate Responsibility on his platform. Looking more at his platform, I’m actually a bit surprised. His platform is extensive and has actual ideas on it. Points for having an extensive platform that is pro-small-business, pro-environment, and anti-offshoring. I think for this election, his inexperience will count against him, and his being a lawyer certainly isn’t good, but I do like the platform.
Richard Gephardt has a law degree and has been in Congress since 1976. Points down, down, down. IIRC, he has lots of endorsments from labor unions, so I guess I would call him pro-labor, but his platform is virtually empty at that website, so I can’t evaluate his positions against the others. Points off for having no ideas? His campaign website has some ideas, but I also noticed that website had an article with the headline “Gephardt Fighting Lackluster Image”. In fairness, I didn’t read the article, but on the other hand, I guess I don’t need to. I’m guessing if he wanted to be President, he would either try harder, or have better campaign staff. See ya, Dick.
John Kerry has a law degree and has been a US Senator since 1984. Points off. He gets some points back for being born in Colorado (for whatever that’s worth). He was a “decorated war veteran” who served in Vietnam. Points for being in the military, and points for getting the Bronze Star, Silver Star, and three Purple Hearts. They don’t hand those out like candy. Can’t find what his rank was, but since I would assume he had to go into battle to get awards like those, I will presume he has a grunt’s-eye view. Points for having heard the shots fired in anger (and for hopefully having learned from it). Points for “pahking tha cah in Havahd Yahd” (being from Massachusetts). Points off for having a thin platform. Can’t judge the substance except for a few issues. Points for anti-offshoring.
Dennis Kuchnich is a US Representative from Ohio. A few points off for being from Washington, though he gets a few points back for having been a college professor. It looks like he has been in politics off and on since 1977 as Mayor of Cleveland, Ohio and as Ohio State Senator. His platform seems fairly general. I’m guessing he has ideas, but isn’t getting them across in the manner of the other campaigns that use a slogan for every idea like “Fair Tax Plax of 2004″ or “No Child Left Behind”. Sometime in 2003, I took an online survey that would ask for a person’s individual positions, then would rank the candidates according to the closest macth. Kuchnich was my closest match.
Joseph Lieberman has a law degree and has represented Connecticut in the US Senate for 14 years. Prior to that he was involved in Conneticut state politics. Points off for being a lawyer and professional politician. Gets points back for his blue-collar roots (or at least pointing it out in his bio). Points for being pro-environment. Points off for thinking Iraq was a good idea. To be fair, it looks like he has supported removing Saddam for over 10 years, so I guess with him it isn’t political, it’s something he has believed in for quite some time. With George Bush, I’m fairly sure it’s all politics.
Carol Moseley Braun is a former lawyer who has been in politics since 1978 and has been US Senator from Illinois 1992 – 1998 when she lost re-election. She was appointed Ambassador to New Zealand in 1998 by President Clinton. Points off for being a lawyer and career polititian. Gets a few points back for being an Ambassador, which I assume gives her some experience with international politics. Points for being pro-envionment, pro-technology, and pro-public-transit (something I hadn’t thought about). Like Kuchnich, her platform seems a bit general, and doesn’t have too many concrete ideas.
Al Sharpton is an ordained minister who comes from working-class background. Points for both. IIRC, he also has a good sense of humor and is a fairly good speaker. Points for both. It doesn’t look like he has a degree, but since he is ordained, I would assume he has done a lot of self-education. Points for learning by doing. His platform is as thin as Gephardt’s. The platform on his campaign website is also thin, though there are some general statements about how he stands. Points off for the thin platform. He seems like a nice guy, but I have nothing to compare him to the other candidates.
Depending on which poll you listen to, the front runners are Clark, Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman, with Dean being the strongest candidate and Clark running a close second. The Iowa Caucus is in a week or so, and the first primaries are coming up in February and March. I expect that by March, the Sharpton, Moseley-Braun, and Kuchnich campaigns will be gone. Edwards is also likely to go, but I think he has some money of his own that may keep his campaign afloat a little while longer. I think Lieberman’s support of the Iraq War will hurt him a bit, but I think what will hurt him more is that he looks and acts like the consumate career politician. This will also hurt Kerry and Gephardt, though I think they may be able to hang in a little longer. I think Dean will get the nomination (maybe with Kerry as his running mate), and Clark will ultimately be hurt by not doing the Iowa Caucus and getting a late start in his campaign.
Most of the other campaigns seem to be knocking Dean because he doesn’t have “experience”. They think he will be like Dukakis, McGovern, or Mondale. I saw he got a recent endorsement from Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, who compared him to Truman. I think he’s fiesty, like Truman. Personally, I think he may be more like Clinton or Bush/43. Get a Governor (outsider) and pair him with a senator or representative (insider), and the chances for his campaign start to look up. His being a doctor is a good thing, because it shows he’s had a “real” job. Plus, I don’t think we have ever had a President who was an MD. Does that mean he will be called “Dr President,” instead of “Mr President”? I think Dean stands the best chance of being elected to replace George Bush. I don’t think it will be a landslide, but I don’t think it will be like the 2000 election, either.
I think Bush’s re-election chances will rest entirely in what happens over the next 11 months. I’m not talking about how well he campaigns, but how well the economy does. No amount of campaigning will make up for millions of lost jobs. The democrats don’t have anything to lose, so where Bush falters, they only stand to gain. What’s interesting, it was the economy that also proved the downfall of his father. Also, I think one of the main reasons he was elected was the novelty factor of having the son of a President become President himslef. I also think the novelty has worn off.
Filed Under Journal, Miscellaneous | Comments Off
Some new stuff
Posted on January 8, 2004
I changed the Downloads section from ArkiDB to PAFileDB. It’s not too big a deal, and they look and act very similar, but PAFileDB allows people to download without logging in. It doesn’t allow sub-categories (as far as I can tell), so under Blender there is a whole slew of categories. I also added some new tarballs, and I will be adding the old ones back in soon. The plan is to take advantage of my new found global illumination skills and the new raytracer in Blender to come up with some better images – especially for the glass and chrome-like files.
Also, the old packages were licensed under the LGPL, which is good, but I am re-releasing them under the Creative Commons ShareAlike License. Creative Commons’ licenses are geared more towards media and content rather than software, so it is a closer fit for a Blender file than the LGPL.
Filed Under 3D, Miscellaneous, Net | Comments Off
I’m Back…
Posted on January 4, 2004
I’m back from visiting some of the family in Colorado. While I was away for about two weeks, that doesn’t mean I wasn’t busy. I read a few books and worked on some more tutorials for Blender, etc. I will be putting those things up in the next few days. I have to catch up on two weeks worth of email and two weeks worth of snail mail, unpack, etc.
